# Event-Driven Risk Analysis

## User question

> A hot policy theme is trending. How should I analyze event-driven opportunities without chasing blindly?

## Recommended skill

```text
biga-event-skill/SKILL.md
```

## Example output

```markdown
# Event-Driven Theme Risk Checklist

## 1. Event type

- Is the catalyst policy-driven, earnings-driven, restructuring-related, or purely narrative-driven?
- Is the event confirmed by reliable sources?
- Is the market reacting to new information or recycling an old story?

## 2. Fundamental linkage

- Which companies can actually benefit from the event?
- Is the benefit material to revenue, margin, cash flow, or orders?
- Is the connection direct, indirect, or speculative?

## 3. Market expectation

- Has the theme already moved sharply before the news?
- Are valuations and volume showing crowded trading behavior?
- Is the upside driven by fundamentals or short-term sentiment?

## 4. Failure conditions

- Policy implementation is delayed or weaker than expected.
- Company fundamentals do not confirm the theme.
- Valuation rises faster than earnings visibility.
- Liquidity weakens and speculative capital exits.

## 5. Risk control

- Avoid treating a theme as a guaranteed investment case.
- Separate research observation from trading action.
- Define what data would confirm or reject the event thesis.

> This is for investment research and education only. It is not investment advice.
```

## Boundary note

This example does not provide stock recommendations, trading signals, target prices, or return expectations.